Wisconsin men's basketball preview
2016-17 Season Recap
The Wisconsin Badgers men's basketball team has been one of the most consistent programs in the entire country over the past two decades. The Badgers have made the NCAA Tournament 19 straight seasons and have finished in the top four in the Big Ten Conference in 17 of those seasons.
Last year, the Badgers were coming off a 2015-16 season that saw the team reach the Sweet 16. Wisconsin lost just one senior, Jordan Smith, from that team, meaning the team was primed for a another good season.
Wisconsin opened the season by winning 11 of 13 nonconference games, but had just one ranked win over Syracuse. The Badgers lost both their games to ranked teams, Creighton and North Carolina.
With a lack of big wins, Wisconsin needed a strong conference showing to validate itself as a top college basketball program. The Badgers won 10 of their first 11 Big Ten games, falling at Purdue. The team excelled in close, low-scoring games but never really flexed their muscles and truly dominated teams they probably should have.
What happened next is something all Badgers' fans remember. In its final seven conference games, Wisconsin won just two times. The script flipped, as the team fell apart late in most of those games.
The Badgers were not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament heading into the Big Ten Tournament. The team earned a pair of wins before falling to Michigan in the conference championship game, pretty much locking up a NCAA bid.
The tournament committee gave the Badgers a No. 8 seed, still much lower than most college basketball fans assumed. To make matters worse, Wisconsin was placed in the same bracket as top-seeded Villanova, the defending champions.
The Badgers opened the tournament with a 10-point win over ninth-seeded Virginia Tech. Wisconsin then pulled one of the biggest tournament upsets in taking down Villanova. Wisconsin ended the year in a heartbreaking overtime loss to fourth-seeded Florida, a loss that still stings to think about.
2017-18 Season Preview
Heading into the 2017-18 season, Wisconsin has a lot to prove after the departure of four seniors from its starting lineup (Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes, Vitto Brown, Zak Showalter) from last year's team.
The lone returning player, Ethan Happ, from that starting lineup is no slouch, though. Happ was a first team all-conference pick as a sophomore. He also was a member of the all-defensive team, helping the Badgers to the 13th-best scoring defense in the country. The team allowed just 62.4 points per game. He will undoubtedly be the Badgers' leader this season.
Outside of Happ, the team does not have many other proven players on the roster. Khalil Iverson and D'Mitrik Trice earned minutes last year, but were inconsistent.
What benefits the Badgers, who were projected to finish in the middle of the Big Ten, is that the team traveled to Australia/New Zealand for a number of exhibition games. The trip offered a young and inexperienced team plenty of extra practice and game experience that should help keep the team from a slow start this season.
Wisconsin opens the season tonight (Friday, Nov. 10 against South Carolina State) but the Badgers had two more tuneups in exhibition games against Northern Iowa and UW-Stout in the past 10 days. I believe those games were a preview of what fans should expect, at least to open the regular season.
The starting lineup should consist of Trice, Brevin Pritzl, Iverson, Andy Van Vliet and Happ. Freshman Kobe King and Brad Davison will play significant minutes from the start of the season and provide two solid scoring options off the bench. Either could also slide into the starting lineup should any of the projected lineup players falter. Alex Illikainen and Charles Thomas should again provide minutes off the bench, but both need to play more consistently to help the Badgers achieve their potential.
I also see Aleem Ford earning more and more minutes as the season progresses. Freshman Nate Reuvers could also fall under that same theme, but is also a redshirt candidate as minutes would be low to start the year. Should Reuvers not play this season, expect Aaron Moesch to earn some more playing time and serve as an above-average defender and veteran presence on the court.
2017-18 Prediction
While the team is going to feature one of its youngest and most inexperienced rosters in recent memory, the team still has the potential to again compete for a Big Ten title and again make a deep NCAA Tournament run.
Should Trice and Iverson make improvements to their game and Pritzl turn into a respectable 3-point shooter, the offense should thrive with a player of the year candidate in Happ dominating the post. Happ also has shown improvement in his mid- to long-range game and could also provide some help in the 3-point department.
I like King and Davison to both have solid freshman campaigns and lift the second unit. So, if the Badgers could get help from Illikainen, Thomas and possibly even Ford, Reuvers and Moesch, the team will have plenty of options to turn to during the course of a game.
The nonconference schedules includes the likes of Xavier, Baylor, Creighton/UCLA, Virginia, and of course, Marquette. Those matchups will be telling in how good this Badgers' team can truly be.
The Big Ten slate of games will be tough for such a young roster. Expect a few bumps along the way, but don't be surprised if the team again finishes in the top-four in the conference standings.
Regular Season Record Prediction - 22-9, 12-6 Big Ten (3rd place)
NCAA Tournament Prediction - 6 seed
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