Miami Dolphins Preview and Prediction

Team Preview

I want to start this preview/prediction article off by stating that my outlook on the Miami Dolphins changed drastically after the injury to quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the signing of Jay Cutler. I originally had the Dolphins at a 9-7 record, which was good enough for the sixth seed in the AFC come playoff time. I have adjusted their record/outlook, which not only knocks them out of the playoffs, but shook up my standings across the NFL.

A change from Tannehill to Cutler makes that much of a difference? Yes. It does.

While Tannehill's career numbers don't jump off the page or make him an elite QB, when you compare those numbers to Cutler, most years Tannehill was the superior QB. While Cutler can sling the ball all over the field, he also tends to turn the ball over. A lot. In years, Cutler has played in 11 or more games, he has thrown double digit interceptions.

With all that said, it's not like Cutler cannot win games as a starting quarterback in the NFL. It's just hard to imagine him having as much success as Tannehill had with the Dolphins.

Last year, the Dolphins finished 10-6 overall before being dismantled by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild card round. Tannehill suffered a sprained ACL and MCL in a week 14 win over the Arizona Cardinals and did not play the rest of the season. Backup QB Matt Moore helped the team earn wins in two of the final three weeks before the playoff loss. Moore will serve as the team's backup again this season and could see the field if Cutler struggles. I'd expect a long leash for Cutler, the reason being that he signed a $10 million deal to play one year.

At running back, the Dolphins will be led by 2015 fifth-rounder Jay Ajayi, who enjoyed a breakout season last year. Ajayi earned 260 attempts, rushing for 1,272 yards and eight touchdowns. Ajayi will again be the workhorse this season, with 2016 third round pick Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams receiving a few carries a game. Williams also provides a threat out of the backfield after collecting 23 receptions for 249 yards and three scores last year.

In the passing game, Jarvis Landry leads the charge after recording 94 receptions, 1,136 yards but only four scores. DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills produced similar stat lines last year, with Stills serving as a deep threat. A 2015 first-rounder, Parker saw his production jump in year two on the field. I'd expect another jump in year three, giving Cutler plenty of options to spread the ball between. Leonte Carroo could also be primed for a breakout season of his own after not seeing the field much as a rookie.

At tight end, former Denver Bronco and Jacksonville Jaguar Julius Thomas could also carve out a nice role in the passing game. Thomas also will see plenty of looks inside the red zone.

On defense, Kiko Alonso leads the unit after a 115-total tackle season last year. Former Pittsburgh Steeler Lawrence Timmons adds another dimension to the defense after collecting 114 tackles last year. Timmons also provides a pass-rushing threat off the edge. Rookie Raekwon McMillan should start the year at middle linebacker and will need to immediately become a consistent tackler to help a defense that ranked in the bottom-five in terms of total yards allowed a season ago.

On the d-line, Ndamukong Suh leads the way. Suh finished with 72 total tackles, the most in his career, and five sacks. Cameron Wake, who posted 11 ½ sacks, continues to impress, even in his mid-30's. Andre Branch and Jordan Phillips fill out the defensive line, while former Los Angeles Ram Williams Hayes and 2017 draft picks Charles Harris and Davon Godchaux provide some depth.

In the secondary, Reshad Jones and Nate Allen team up at safety. Jones hopes to return to full health after only playing in six games a year ago; in 2015, he tallied 135 total tackles. Michael Thomas and TJ McDonald serve as depth. Cornerbacks Byron Maxwell and Xavien Howard combined for 93 total tackles while Bobby McCain and 2017 third round pick Cordrea Tankersley should also see time on the gridiron.

2017-18 Schedule/Predictions 1 - vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (L) 2 - at Los Angeles Chargers (L) 3 - at New York Jets (W) 4 - vs New Orleans Saints (W) 5 - vs Tennessee Titans (L) 6 - at Atlanta Falcons (L) 7 - vs New York Jets (W) 8 - at Baltimore Ravens (W) 9 - vs Oakland Raiders (L) 10 - at Carolina Panthers (L) 11 - BYE 12 - at New England Patriots (L) 13 - vs Denver Broncos (W) 14 - vs New England Patriots (L) 15 - at Buffalo Bills (L) 16 - at Kansas City Chiefs (L) 17 - vs Buffalo Bills (L)

Season Record: 5-11, 2-4 AFC East

The Dolphins' success comes down to the play of Cutler. Miami should be able to run the ball and have plenty of weapons in the passing game. Cutler is going to need to limit his turnovers and stay healthy for this team to have a shot at the playoffs. An improved defense could also help this team back to the playoffs, but I just don't see a ton of winnable games on the schedule. After a bye in week 11, the Dolphins could easily lose all six remaining games, meaning the one-year Cutler replacement plan would leave this team short of the playoffs and with a top-10 draft pick next season.

Next AFC Team Up - Cincinnati Bengals

Sources not listed in article: ESPN - stats; Ourlads - depth chart; Playoff Predictors - schedule/record projections.

#MiamiDolphins