Houston Texans Preview and Prediction

Team Preview

The Houston Texans have been the AFC South's best team over the past six seasons. Houston made the playoffs in both the 2011-12/2012-13 seasons before suffering a 2-14 campaign in the 2013-14 season. For the past three seasons, the Texans have finished with 9-7 records, making the playoffs the past two years as the top AFC South team. After handling an inured Oakland Raiders' team in the wild card round last year, the eventual Super Bowl champion New England Patriots crushed the Texans in the divisional round.

The Texans will have a new man behind center after the Brock Osweiler debacle. Tom Savage, who played in three games last year, will open the year as the starting QB. Savage recorded 461 passing yards while not throwing a touchdown or interception in his limited time on the field last year; Savage completed 63 percent of his passes. Rookie Deshaun Watson figures to take over the starting role at some point of the season, although if Savage performs well, the Texans could choose to wait until next year to start Watson.

Regardless of who is behind center, the Texans can count on running back Lamar Miller to shoulder the load, if healthy. Miller topped 1,000 yards (1,073) while adding five touchdowns a year ago. Miller also caught 31 passes for 188 yards and another score. When Miller takes a breather, Alfred Blue (420 yards, 1 TD), 2016 fourth-rounder Tyler Ervin and 2017 third-rounder D'Onta Foreman figure to receive the carries. The Texans see Foreman as Miller's eventual placement, but it might take awhile for the rookie back to find his groove.

DeAndre Hopkins leads the wide receiver corps after a 78-catch, 954-yard, 4-touchdown season a year ago. Strong QB play should easily put Hopkins over 1,000 yards while an increase in touchdowns is also likely. 2016 first-round pick Will Fuller V (47 receptions, 635 yards, 2 TD) looks to make a jump in his second year on the field while Jaelen Strong and Braxton Miller figure to round out the unit. Outside Hopkins, the WR's on the Texans are not proven, meaning improvement from Fuller and a breakout season from Miller or Strong is needed so opposing defenses can not key in on the run and stack the box.

Tight ends CJ Fiedorowicz (54 receptions, 559 yards, 4 TD) and Ryan Griffin (50 catches, 442 yards, 2 TD) will also play a big role in the passing game, especially if some of the WR do not step up.

The Texans used their 2017 NFL draft picks to bolster their defense. Second-round LB Zach Cunningham may not start from the beginning of the year, but his play could leave the coaching staff no choice but to make a spot for him. Fourth-round defensive lineman Carlos Watkins and fifth-round CB Treston Decoud will serve backup roles to start their careers, giving them plenty of time to develop into eventual threats down the road.

The health of JJ Watt did not seem to affect the Texans' defense last year, which ranked tops in the league in yards allowed per game (301.3). If Watt can return to full health, or even near full health, the defense will be that much better. Joining Watt on the d-line will be DJ Reader (22 tackles) and Christian Covington (26 tackles); that duo could see an increase in production with opposing offensive lines keying in on stopping Watt.

Benardrick McKinney leads the linebacker core after posting 129 total tackles and five sacks last year. The 2015 second rounder will be joined by Brian Cushing (65 tackles in 13 games) in the middle of the defense, while Jadeveon Clowney (52 tackles, 6 sacks) and Whitney Mercilus (53 tackles, 7 ½ sacks) add a pass-rushing presence off the edges. If the front-seven can stay healthy, the group is arguably the best in the league (Pro Football Focus agrees).

The secondary, which PFF ranks near the middle of the league, is going to have a new look this coming season. Gone are cornerback A.J. Bouye and safety Quinten Demps, the leaders of the unit last season. 2015 first-rounder Kevin Johnson and veterans Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson will now look to shut down opposing team's passing games from the cornerback slots while Corey Moore and Andre Hal roam the field at the two safety positions. The Texans are not especially deep in the secondary, so the unit will need to stay as healthy as possible. Can the front-seven carry the load and make this season another elite one for the Texans' defense?

2017-18 Schedule/Predictions 1 - vs Jacksonville Jaguars (W) 2 - at Cincinnati Bengals (L) 3 - at New England Patriots (W) 4 - vs Tennessee Titans (L)

5 - vs Kansas City Chiefs (W) 6 - vs Cleveland Browns (W) 7 - BYE 8 - at Seattle Seahawks (L) 9 - vs Indianapolis Colts (W) 10 - at Los Angeles Rams (L) 11 - vs Arizona Cardinals (W) 12 - at Baltimore Ravens (W) 13 - at Tennessee Titans (L) 14 - vs San Francisco 49ers (W) 15 - at Jacksonville Jaguars (L) 16 - vs Pittsburgh Steelers (W) 17 - at Indianapolis Colts (L)

Season Record: 9-7, 2-4 AFC South

If Watt can stay healthy and the secondary can surprise, this defense could have one of the best years in NFL history. There are still too many question marks on offense to have the team leapfrog the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts, who I both have in the playoffs. Maybe a year of seasoning for Watson at QB will be all it takes to get this offense really rolling. Until then, expect the defense to keep the Houston Texans in most games, but the lacking offense to play streaky, leaving the team one win shy of a postseason berth in the 2017-18 NFL season.

Next AFC Team Up - Playoff matchups!

Sources not listed in article: ESPN - stats; Ourlads - depth chart; Playoff Predictors - schedule/record projections.