A Look Back at Preseason Predictions/Updated Postseason Projections

Predicting anything in life is a challenge. If you really want a good laugh though, try to predict the entire NFL season. No, not just the games every single week but the overall record, playoff teams and super bowl champion before the regular season even begins.

Back in early August, I attempted to predict the record for each NFL team (AFC and NFC). Based off those projected records, I then attempted to correctly predict how the NFL playoffs would unfold (NFL Playoff Predictions).

With the playoffs now here, I thought it would be fun to take a look back and see how accurate, or inaccurate, my predictions were.

Enjoy a laugh with me.

Regular Season Record Predictions

*Predicted record first, then actual record

AFC

NORTH Pittsburgh 12-4 --- 13-3 (-1) Baltimore 8-8 --- 9-7 (+1) Cincinnati 5-11 --- 7-9 (+2) Cleveland 3-13 --- 0-16 (-3)

Notes: While I did not predict a single AFC North's team record correctly, it was the only division where my projected order of finish was correct. Pittsburgh and Baltimore's finishes were almost exactly as I expected while Cincinnati outperformed my projections despite a slow start to the year. Then you have the Browns, who somehow still managed to make my 3-13 projected record look terrible.

SOUTH Tennessee 10-6 --- 9-7 (-1) Indianapolis 10-6 --- 4-12 (-6) Houston 8-8 --- 4-12 (-4) Jacksonville 4-12 --- 10-6 (+6)

Notes: When I made my projections, I assumed Andrew Luck would be the starting quarterback for Indianapolis early in the season... That assumption backfired as Luck never played and the Colts never had a shot at the division crown. Houston also faltered after an injury-riddled season really decimated the defense and left the offense without a dynamic QB. Tennessee finished where I expected them to while Jacksonville came out of nowhere to win the division.

EAST New England 14-2 --- 13-3 (-1) Miami 9-7 --- 6-10 (-3) Buffalo 5-11 --- 9-7 (+4) New York 1-15 --- 5-11 (+4)

Notes: Back when I made my projections, I really thought the AFC East would turn out to be my best predicted division. New England shook off a slow start to cruise to the title, as I expected it would. After the Patriots, I really whiffed on the rest of the division. Miami was clearly not the team I thought they were while Buffalo and New York each far-outperformed my projections.

WEST Oakland 12-4 --- 6-10 (-6) Kansas City 9-7 --- 10-6 (+1) Denver 8-8 --- 6-10 (-2) Los Angeles 5-11 --- 9-7 (+4)

Notes: At the start of the season, I noted that the AFC West might turn into the best division in football and that it could produce three playoffs teams... That clearly didn't happen. Oakland, my projected AFC Super Bowl representative, really took a step back after a promising season a year ago. Kansas City started strong, fizzled in the middle of the season and are now hot again entering the postseason. Denver endured a long losing streak that doomed its season while Los Angeles' slow start kept them out of the postseason. It wasn't the worst division in football, but it certainly wasn't the best.

NFC

NORTH Green Bay 12-4 --- 7-9 (-5) Detroit 9-7 --- 9-7 (Got it!) Minnesota 6-10 --- 13-3 (+7) Chicago 3-13 --- 5-11 (+2)

Notes: My NFC North predictions were really shot with the injury to Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. I hit the nail on the head with Detroit but severely missed on both Green Bay and Minnesota. Chicago even outperformed my projection by a couple of games. Had Rodgers stayed healthy all year, I believe the division would have had three teams fighting for playoffs spots in the final weeks of the season. Instead, Minnesota cruised to the division crown while both Detroit and Green Bay were long shots to make the postseason in the final month of the regular season.

SOUTH Atlanta 12-4 --- 10-6 (-2) Tampa Bay 10-6 --- 5-11 (-6) Carolina 9-7 --- 11-5 (+2) New Orleans 7-9 --- 11-5 (+4)

Notes: The NFC South turned into the conference's best division, like I thought it might... Only problem was, the final division standings were nothing close to mine. Atlanta made the postseason, but looked nothing like the team that played in the Super Bowl just a year ago. Tampa Bay fell way short of my projections and looks to be a long ways from playoff contention still. Both Carolina and New Orleans surprised me thanks to some stellar draft picks and improved play on both sides of the ball.

EAST Dallas 11-5 --- 9-7 (-2) New York 11-5 --- 3-13 (-8) Philadelphia 9-7 --- 13-3 (+4) Washington 7-9 --- 7-9 (Got it!) Notes: Another division, another poorly projection finish for most of its teams. Dallas and New York were both teams I had in the playoffs at the start of the year, but injuries, suspensions and long losing streaks decimated these teams. Philadelphia took a huge leap forward thanks to the play of Carson Wentz, but after his injury, the team's Super Bowl aspirations look bleak. I correctly guessed Washington's record, so I guess I have that going for me. I only guessed two of the NFL's 32 teams' records correctly. TWO!

WEST Seattle 11-5 --- 9-7 (-2) Arizona 10-6 --- 8-8 (-2) Los Angeles 4-12 --- 11-5 (+7) San Francisco 2-14 --- 6-10 (+4)

Notes: The NFC West turned out to be a way better division than I thought it would, thanks to quarterback play. Seattle's offense really only got production from the QB position and could be looking at a rebuild with an aging and battered defense. Arizona, which I had in the playoffs, played better than I expected after the injury to David Johnson; if this team can land a free agent QB and a decent coach, expect them to be back in the playoff hunt next year. Los Angeles was a surprise to many, with Jared Goff looking like the top pick he was a couple years back. San Francisco looked to be on pace to hit my 2-14 mark before the trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, who has given this franchise lots of hope for the future. Could Seattle be this division's worst team next year? That's crazy to even think...

Playoff Projections

(From Preseason)

WILD CARD ROUND

Byes - New England Patriots/Atlanta Falcons/Oakland Raiders/Green Bay Packers

Matchups/Predictions -

Pittsburgh Steelers def. Indianapolis Colts

Kansas City Chiefs def. Tennessee Titans

Seattle Seahawks def. Dallas Cowboys

New York Giants def. Arizona Cardinals

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Matchups/Predictions -

New England Patriots def. Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders def. Pittsburgh Steelers

Atlanta Falcons def. New York Giants

Green Bay Packers def. Seattle Seahawks

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchups/Predictions -

Oakland Raiders def. New England Patriots

Atlanta Falcons def. Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl LII

Matchup/Prediction - Atlanta Falcons def. Oakland Raiders

(Updated)

WILD CARD ROUND

Byes - New England Patriots/Philadelphia Eagles/Pittsburgh Steelers/Minnesota Vikings

Matchups/Predictions -

Jacksonville Jaguars def. Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs def. Tennessee Titans

Atlanta Falcons def. Los Angeles Rams

New Orleans Saints def. Carolina Panthers

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Matchups/Predictions -

New England Patriots def. Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers def. Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons def. Philadelphia Eagles

New Orleans Saints def. Minnesota Vikings

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchups/Predictions -

Pittsburgh Steelers def. New England Patriots

Atlanta Falcons def. New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl LII

Matchup/Prediction - Atlanta Falcons def. Pittsburgh Steelers

Notes: I'm not going to lie, getting five of the 12 NFL playoff teams correct is pretty awful predicting on my part, but it's what makes the NFL so exciting. In the AFC, I'd be shocked if a team other than New England or Pittsburgh doesn't represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I think Pittsburgh avenges its loss from a couple weeks ago and goes to the Super Bowl. The NFC, on the other hand, is a total toss-up. For that reason, I think it's only fitting to take the #6 seed Atlanta and put them in the Super Bowl. That way, my NFC Super Bowl representative also stays the same. And what the heck, let's just give the Falcons redemption for their Super Bowl meltdown a year ago. If it happens, then there will be one bright spot from my preseason predictions. The Atlanta Falcons, Super Bowl LII champions.

Enjoy the postseason!

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